iOS 14.5 & Attribution: What Changed

By the BlackBox Team
8 min read
Updated 1/15/2024

iOS 14.5 & Attribution: What Changed

In April 2021, Apple released iOS 14.5 with a privacy feature called App Tracking Transparency (ATT). It fundamentally changed digital advertising. Here's what happened and how to adapt.

What Changed with iOS 14.5

Before iOS 14.5

Apps (like Facebook) could track you across other apps and websites by default:

1. You browse shoes on a store's app

2. Facebook knows you viewed shoes

3. You open Instagram (owned by Facebook)

4. You see ads for those exact shoes

5. You click the ad and buy

6. Facebook knows you bought (perfect attribution)

Result: Advertisers could track the complete journey and measure ROI accurately.

After iOS 14.5

Apple added a popup every time an app wants to track you:

> "Allow Facebook to track your activity across other companies' apps and websites?"

>

> [Ask App Not to Track] [Allow]

Reality: 70-80% of people click "Ask App Not to Track"

Result: Facebook loses ability to:

  • Track conversions accurately
  • Show you relevant retargeting ads
  • Report accurate ROAS to advertisers
  • Optimize ad delivery for conversions

The Impact on Facebook Ads

What Facebook Lost

  • Customer clicks ad on iPhone → Facebook tracks them
  • Customer buys on iPhone → Facebook sees the purchase
  • Attribution: Perfect ✅
  • Customer clicks ad on iPhone → Facebook tracks them
  • Customer opts out of tracking
  • Customer buys on iPhone → Facebook doesn't see it
  • Attribution: Broken ❌

Why It Broke Facebook Ads

Problem 1: Inaccurate Reporting

  • Facebook Ads Manager shows 50 conversions
  • You actually got 100 conversions
  • You think ROAS is 2x, it's actually 4x
  • You pause profitable campaigns

Problem 2: Poor Ad Optimization

  • Facebook's algorithm optimizes for conversions
  • But it can't see half the conversions
  • So it optimizes based on incomplete data
  • Ad performance actually got worse

Problem 3: Broken Retargeting

  • Can't track who viewed products
  • Can't retarget cart abandoners
  • Retargeting campaigns became much less effective

Problem 4: Audience Targeting

  • Lookalike audiences based on incomplete data
  • Interest targeting less accurate
  • Harder to find your ideal customers

What About Other Platforms?

Why:

  • Google Search doesn't rely on cross-app tracking
  • Users click ads and convert in same session more often
  • Google Shopping uses first-party data

Instagram & TikTok

Email Marketing

Why: Email doesn't rely on browser cookies or app tracking

The Real Problem: Attribution Gaps

1. Customer sees your Facebook ad on iPhone

2. Clicks it (Facebook tracks this)

3. Browses your site

4. Closes browser (opted out of tracking)

5. Comes back later and buys

Reality: 1 conversion from Facebook

How BlackBox Solves This

Server-Side Tracking

Result: Can't be blocked by iOS privacy features

First-Party Data

Why it matters: Can't be blocked by Apple or privacy features

  • Tracks when customer clicks ad (UTM parameters)
  • Tracks when customer creates account (email)
  • Tracks when customer buys (order data)
  • Connects the dots server-side

UTM Parameters (Unaffected by iOS 14.5)

facebook.com/ad → yourstore.com?utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=spring_sale

The UTM parameters are in the URL itself, can't be blocked.

How to Adapt Your Marketing

1. Don't Trust Facebook's Numbers

Why: Facebook under-reports by 30-50%

2. Extend Attribution Windows

Why: iOS 14.5 creates delays in reporting. Longer windows capture more conversions.

3. Focus on First-Party Data

  • Offer discounts for email signup
  • Capture emails before checkout
  • Use email for retargeting (doesn't rely on pixels)

Why: Email isn't affected by iOS changes

4. Use UTM Parameters Religiously

?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=spring_sale&utm_content=carousel_1

Why: Only reliable way to track Facebook traffic post-iOS 14.5

5. Diversify Your Channels

Why: Don't be over-reliant on platforms affected by privacy changes

6. Shift to Top-of-Funnel

Why: Retargeting pixels are broken, email still works

What Facebook Did to Respond

Aggregated Event Measurement (AEM)

Facebook's solution:

  • Limits to 8 conversion events per domain
  • Delays in reporting (up to 72 hours)
  • Modeled conversions (estimates)

Reality: Better than nothing, but still incomplete

Conversions API (CAPI)

Server-to-server data sharing:

  • Your server sends conversion data to Facebook
  • Bypasses browser tracking
  • Improves attribution accuracy

Modeled Conversions

Facebook uses machine learning to estimate conversions it can't see

  • Facebook sees 50 conversions
  • Estimates it missed another 30
  • Reports 80 "total" conversions (50 real + 30 modeled)

Problem: It's guessing. Not always accurate.

The New Reality for Advertisers

What You Need to Accept

  • Use them for relative performance (ad A vs ad B)
  • Don't use them for absolute ROAS
  • Multi-touch journeys are harder to track
  • You need better attribution tools (like BlackBox)
  • More privacy features are coming, not fewer
  • Google is phasing out third-party cookies in 2024
  • Adapt now, don't resist
  • Own your customer data (emails, purchase history)
  • Don't rely on platform data you don't control

What Actually Still Works

  • Email marketing (unaffected)
  • UTM parameters (unaffected)
  • Server-side tracking (works)
  • First-party data (yours to keep)
  • Google Search ads (less impacted)
  • Content marketing (unaffected)
  • Organic social (unaffected)
  • Facebook Pixel alone (broken)
  • Retargeting pixels (mostly broken)
  • Third-party cookies (going away)
  • Cross-app tracking (dead)

Your Action Plan

Immediate Actions (This Week)

1. Install BlackBox server-side tracking

- Can't be blocked by iOS 14.5

- Captures conversions Facebook misses

2. Add UTMs to all Facebook ads

- Only reliable cross-platform tracking

- Use UTM Builder

3. Set BlackBox as your source of truth

- Stop trusting Facebook's numbers alone

- Make decisions based on complete data

Short-term (This Month)

4. Extend attribution windows to 14+ days

- Account for reporting delays

- Capture more conversions

5. Prioritize email list growth

- Pop-ups for new visitors

- Exit-intent offers

- Email is unaffected by iOS 14.5

6. Review your channel mix

- Don't over-rely on Facebook

- Test Google, TikTok, Pinterest

Long-term (Next Quarter)

7. Build email nurture sequences

- Replace retargeting pixels with email

- 7-day welcome sequence

- Cart abandonment emails

8. Focus on content & SEO

- Less reliant on paid ads

- Owns the traffic

- Unaffected by privacy changes

9. Test alternative platforms

- TikTok (younger audience)

- Pinterest (high intent)

- Google Shopping

Key Takeaways

1. iOS 14.5 broke Facebook's tracking by letting users opt out

2. Facebook now misses 30-50% of conversions on iOS devices

3. Don't trust Facebook's reported numbers for absolute ROI

4. Use server-side tracking and UTM parameters (still work)

5. First-party data (email lists) is more valuable than ever

6. Diversify beyond Facebook - don't put all eggs in one basket

7. Email marketing is unaffected and more important than ever

8. This is the new normal - more privacy changes are coming

Try BlackBox Free →

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